One more book, one more bleak picture, self propelling rhetoric.
This is my comment to the LinkedIn post at this lik. Post link
The post presents yet another volume—or book, if you will—on China and its so-called imminent collapse. Naturally, if they depicted a climate of prosperity, positivity, and progress, no one would pay attention. Instead, the well-oiled rhetoric made in the USA keeps the flame alive on a non-problem that is portrayed as a serious issue. What do those who write these books truly know about that great nation of 1400 millions inhabitants? How can they claim to possess granite certainties while writing mere "sensations" and opinions from ten thousand miles away in the West?
This is the report excerpt:
Takeaway from the "China 2025: What To Watch" Report:
The report outlines the multifaceted challenges China will face in 2025, shaped by internal governance issues, economic reforms, geopolitical tensions, and lingering effects of COVID-19. Key themes include:
Governance and Political Pressure: Xi Jinping's centralized power creates a disconnect between control and governance effectiveness, with risks of policy volatility and rising factional rivalries.
Economic Struggles and Reforms: China grapples with local government debt, a real estate crisis, and slowing growth. Fiscal reforms aim to address these issues, but the effectiveness remains uncertain.
Innovation and Industrial Policy: Beijing is prioritizing technological self-reliance and new drivers of growth, particularly in semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
Geopolitical Tensions: The return of a hardline U.S. administration under Donald Trump intensifies strategic competition, trade disputes, and the risk of confrontation over Taiwan.
Societal Shifts: Economic and social uncertainties drive increasing public discontent, migration, and a turn toward religion, despite the party-state's efforts to assert control.
China's response to these challenges in 2025 will significantly influence its long-term trajectory, both domestically and internationally.
Here is my comment:
I start answering my personal view of the 3 main questions: 1. Is Xi's position secure?
We don’t need a crystal ball to answer this. There is nothing more politically solid than a system that has successfully navigated its way from zero to becoming a global economic and technological powerhouse. Which other government can claim such a transformation? From abject poverty to unparalleled development, the results speak for themselves. Sure, one could argue I’m answering with rhetorical questions, but the truth lies within them. The foundations of Xi’s position are anchored in the broader success of the system, not just individual leadership.
Can China's economy recover?
Recover from where, exactly? From pre-COVID levels? That’s not the right framing. A 5% GDP growth rate is far from a “bad result.” Tell me, which Western economy is achieving anything comparable? Where is this so-called “decline” everyone talks about? Let’s stick to the numbers—not ideological narratives or poetic exaggerations. The notion of recovery implies weakness, but what we’re really seeing is sustained, steady growth that outpaces most of the world. Which country of a billion and more of mouths may dream or could perform a steady growt of 10-13%?
How will Trump affect foreign policy?
Whose foreign policy? China’s? Very little. Beijing’s response will be pragmatic and proportional. The U.S. accounts for just 18% of China’s exports, and any potential tariffs can be mitigated. A 3-6% shortfall can be offset through RMB devaluation, while the rest will be absorbed by increasing trade with the Global South, which is growing faster than the West. Even if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on 100% of imports, it won’t fully stop the flow of goods that are vital to American daily life. The reality is simple: as things stand today, China is irreplaceable.
This narrative about Trump’s impact on China is just another chapter in the anti-China rhetoric machine. It’s full of empty opinions but lacking in historical context. Look at the last 60 years of global development, and project those trends over the next five—what do you see? That’s where the real answers lie.
The report, one more, paints a bleak picture for China's near future, emphasizing systemic and governance issues that exacerbate economic and social challenges. It is stated that some reforms and efforts in innovation show promise, they are overshadowed by unresolved structural weaknesses and escalating external pressures, particularly from an increasingly adversarial U.S. administration. The conclusion suggests a critical juncture in which China's resilience will be tested.
The content indeed describe a negative trajectory, portraying a challenging and uncertain outlook for China in 2025. Back to December 2023 was the same climate, books and pages of same ideological tinted context of the same anti china mood, stimulating the western readers that are keep alarmed by the USA rhetoric, it is a chain reaction that keep the issue self propelled.
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The head of the report page. Link to the report
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