A Personal Reflection on U.S.-China Relations under next Trump Presidency
A reply to the article of Wang Huiyao Published 9 Nov 2024 on SCMP
In my humble opinion, the article feels more like a hopeful vision than an analysis based on facts and Trump’s declarations over the past two years. I share these thoughts simply to express my view, not to persuade anyone.
I don’t believe Trump would distance himself from the populism and assertive actions he has repeatedly promoted. Throughout his campaign, he’s emphasized that his focus remains on “America First” policies. If we consider his past actions, it’s hard to imagine he would pivot to a cooperative stance with China. Instead, I believe he’ll continue to use trade as a tool to display his strength to his base, regardless of the economic fallout, including inflation or tariff hikes
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On Chinese investments in the U.S., the author seems overly optimistic. Trump’s stance has consistently been about “America for Americans,” which implies restricting foreign investments, especially from China. He’s shown no indication of relaxing this position, and I doubt he’ll shift gears.
The article also suggests Trump might seek China’s support for resolving global conflicts. In my view, this is far-fetched. If Trump were to engage with China on the international stage, it would likely be to seek tactical support for specific goals, perhaps before targeting what he’s described as the “archenemy” in some areas. Yet, Trump’s general approach is more likely to be one of confrontation than genuine cooperation. While he may lean on China’s support when convenient, his rhetoric suggests he still views China as a rival to be kept in check rather than an ally.
On issues like Taiwan, climate change, or cultural exchange, I feel these are more wishful thinking than grounded expectations. Trump has openly stated he’ll pull out of climate agreements on his first day, and his policy on Taiwan seems focused on escalating tensions rather than easing them. If there’s any cooperation with China, it’s hard to imagine it would be in these areas. Similarly, the idea of fostering cultural exchanges with China doesn’t align with Trump’s rhetoric; I’ve seen no mention of such goals in his policy agenda.
Finally, while the article alludes to a shared responsibility between the U.S. and China for global peace, I believe this is simply unrealistic given Trump’s stance. He’s far more focused on maintaining U.S. dominance than on building shared leadership with China. From what I can see, his approach is more about asserting U.S. preeminence than pursuing peace initiatives.
These are simply my thoughts, based on what I’ve seen and heard over the campaign and recent years. I may be wrong, and I respect others’ views, but I believe this perspective deserves consideration.
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285621/transactional-trump-may-well-improve-us-china-ties?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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